Abstract: The hearth thermal state is an important index to reflect the operation state of blast furnace hearth, which has guiding significance for the operation of blast furnace (BF) in high yield, energy saving and emission reduction. The iron-making is carried out in a closed container with high temperature and pressure. It is a complex industrial process with multivariable, distributed, strong coupling and time-varying condition. In addition, the production conditions of the blast furnace often fluctuate, resulting in the same state does not necessarily mean that the temperature of the hearth is same. The comprehensive evaluation of hearth thermal state by the blast furnace operator is inevitably affected by personal subjective factors, it also has problems of uncertainty and fuzziness. Based on the furnace temperature prediction, according to the actual production situation and expert experience, the important parameters which represented the thermal state of the blast furnace hearth were analyzed and extracted, and the comprehensive evaluation index system of the hearth thermal state was established in this work. Then, a two-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of blast furnace hearth thermal state (too low, low, suitable, high, too high) by using statistical method was built to determine the weights of evaluation indexes and the membership degree function. Finally, the comprehensive evaluation of hearth thermal state to 2500 m3blast furnace was applied to evaluate the thermal state of hearth comprehensively. At the same time, the evaluation was used to compare with the actual operation situation. From the comparison results, there were 794 groups matched perfectly (d=0) in the evaluation results of the model, accounting for 74.21%. There were 245 groups matched reliably (d=±1), accounting for 22.90%, and the matching rate reached 97.11%. The evaluation model provided an accurate and reliable basis for realizing the stable thermal state of the blast furnace hearth and producing energy saving and emission reduction.

Key words: Blast furnace, the hearth thermal state, Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Expert knowledge, Time series

摘要： 基于炉温预测与多参数信息，以2500 m3高炉为对象，依据实际生产情况与专家经验，分析、提取了表征高炉炉缸运行热状态的重要参数，建立了炉缸热状态综合评价指标体系和高炉炉缸热状态两级模糊综合评价模型，利用统计法确定评价指标权重与隶属度函数。与实际运行情况比较，模型评价结果匹配率高达97.11%，与实际一致，且实时、准确有效。

关键词: 高炉, 炉缸热状态, 模糊综合评价, 专家知识, 时间序列